Alas, that's the situation right now.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Cole will miss at least one-to-two months and will travel to Los Angeles to meet with sports surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache for additional testing. While a tear in Cole's UCL has not been detected, he is expected to miss an "extended period", per Heyman, with the hope of returning in May or early June. ansi b1647 flange
He previously had underwent further testing on Tuesday after getting the MRI on Monday. The vibes coming out of the Yankees' spring training camp aren't positive, with Bob Klapisch of NJ Advance Media even using the phrase "panic mode" to describe the state of the team.
Between the 1,279.2 innings and the 10,092 95-plus mph pitches he's thrown since 2017, this is an elbow with lots of miles on it. The worst-case scenario involves some kind of surgery for a torn ligament or tendon, potentially even season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Cole is coming off winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2023, the fourth year of his nine-year, $324 million contract. And what a rock he was, as no other Yankee starter achieved even half his value.
The Yankees nonetheless have no choice but to weigh their options while Cole recovers. The stakes for the 2024 season are simply too high. They're trying to avoid making it 15 years in a row without a World Series appearance, and this may be the only shot they're going to get with Juan Soto.
So, here's how we'd arrange and rank said options.
Weaver is the most experienced pitcher here, and the Yankees have some idea of what he's capable of. He made three starts for them at the end of 2023 and was solid in allowing five runs in 13.1 innings. His cause may also be helped by a contract that guarantees at least $2 million.
Prior to that, however, the 30-year-old righty had been shellacked for a 6.77 ERA in 26 appearances with the Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners. Albeit over just 35.2 innings, his ERA for 2022 also ended up over 6.00 as well.
What Beeter, Gómez and Warren have in common is placement among the Yankees' top 30 prospects for MLB.com. While Warren ranks the highest at No. 8 compared to No. 14 for Beeter and No. 18 for Gómez, he's not on the 40-man roster.
Beeter and Gómez are, and the former is having a nice spring after posting a 3.62 ERA in 131.2 innings in the high minors last year. He's permitted two runs in nine innings while striking out 11, showing off his impressive slider in the process:
Clayton Beeter, White Castle Special. 🤮🍔🍔🍔 <a href="https://t.co/GcuMHIGg4T">pic.twitter.com/GcuMHIGg4T</a>
Granted, Gil may have Beeter beat in name recognition. He was one of the Yankees' top prospects a few years ago and hit 100 mph in striking out 14 of the 32 batters he's faced this spring.
The catch with Gil, 25, though, is that he comes with workload limitations. He's topped out at 108.2 innings in a season, and that was the year before he had Tommy John surgery in 2022. He may be better suited to a swingman role.
Ranking the Lesser Free Agents
That these guys are indeed lesser free agents isn't ideal, unless you're talking about the Yankees' bottom line. Their luxury tax payroll for 2024 is already over the highest threshold of $297 million, so any additional dollar they spend will incur a 110 percent tax.
We know for a fact that the Yankees have interest in Syndergaard. They were present at the showcase that the erstwhile New York Mets flamethrower held in January, where they apparently got to witness him throwing in the mid-90s:
Yankees are among about 15 teams that have gone to watch one of Noah Syndergaard's pen sessions. Their interest level is unknown but he was said to be in the mid 90's.
This is after Syndergaard averaged 92.3 mph on his heater in 2023, wherein he pitched for two different teams and got lit up for a 6.50 ERA. If his gas is indeed back, he could be worth a flier as low-risk, high-reward filler for Cole's spot.
Lorenzen and Clevinger are nonetheless the safer bets here, and in exactly that order.
Clevinger had the better ERA last year, but he pitched only 131.1 innings with a proneness to fly balls that likely wouldn't play well at Yankee Stadium. Lorenzen was an All-Star and the author of a no-hitter as he racked up 153 innings, and there may still be untapped upside in his seven-pitch mix.
Frankly, Hill and Greinke are on this list because I was at a loss for who else to put on it. The two of them have 84 combined years on this earth, and each posted an ERA in the 5.00s last season.
Ranking the Long-Shot Trade Targets
Gilbert, Miller and Woo appeared in trade whispers here and there throughout the winter, and it doesn't take much to understand why a team would want them.
All three featured above average stuff last season, with Gilbert and Miller also combining to walk only 45 batters in 322 innings. Gilbert is controlled through 2027, while Miller and Woo under club control all the way through 2029.
But if Yankees GM Brian Cashman does call Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto about those guys, he'd likely get the same message that the Boston Red Sox got. That, to paraphrase reporting from Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, was basically "go away."
The Mariners are looking to contend in 2024, after all, and the same is ostensibly true of the Marlins and Guardians.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic cast doubt on a Luzardo trade in January, which was notably before fellow Marlins hurler Edward Cabrera hurt his shoulder again. Jon Heyman of the New York Post did the same with a Bieber trade, calling it "very unlikely."
So even if Luzardo is the better option of those two in the abstract—I'll take his youth, stuff and control over Bieber's short-season Cy Young Award—it's no easier to imagine either of them in pinstripes than it is Gilbert, Miller or Woo.
Ranking the Realistic Ace Targets
Montgomery may only be third on this list, but don't take that as a criticism of his talent. He's been one of the 10 best hurlers in MLB since the Yankees traded him in 2022.
But while he's readily available, Montgomery may not be attainable for the Yankees. Klapisch's article notes that the lefty "apparently wants no part of returning" to the Bronx.
Cease, on the other hand, is very much on the Yankees' radar. This is according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who reported on Tuesday that New York has "re-engaged" with the White Sox on the right-hander:
The Yankees, while awaiting news on Gerrit Cole, have re-engaged with the Chicago White Sox and made a new proposal for ace Dylan Cease, but the new offer once again did not include prized outfield prospect Spencer Jones.
That Cease's ERA more than doubled from 2022 to 2023 isn't ideal, but that happened even as he maintained elite-level stuff. He's also under club control through 2025, so a trade for him would have at least two chances to pay off.
But can the Yankees get Cease without giving up Spencer Jones?
It could be a challenge. It took big sacrifices elsewhere for them not to include Jones, a power-hitting outfielder who ranks No. 84 in MLB.com's top 100, in the Soto trade, and their supply of trade chips is worse for it. To this end, it also doesn't help that the team's top prospect, outfielder, Jasson Domínguez is recovering from Tommy John surgery.
This leaves Snell, who's certainly the best guy the Yankees can get if they want someone who can mimic Cole. Last year saw him win the second Cy Young Award of his career, and he did so with an MLB-low 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts over 180 innings.
The Yankees reportedly had an offer on the table to Snell and his agent, Scott Boras, in February, but Andy Martino of SNY reported Monday that Cole's situation has not "reignited" the pursuit.
Snell wants to pitch for the Yankees, according to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, but the aforementioned tax hit complicates the prospect of signing him. Even a one-year, $30 million deal would come with an extra $33 million in penalties, amounting to a $63 million total cost.
In any case, it figures that the Yankees' next move hinges on the results for Cole's elbow. If it's a minor injury, they'll be safe staying in-house or signing one of the lesser options. If it's a major injury, they'll need a more substantial solution.
My best guesses: the Yankees will stay in-house with Beeter or Weaver if it's the former, and most likely keep trying for Cease if it's the latter. Snell is the better pitcher, but the price to sign him strikes me as too severe for a cost-conscious owner like Hal Steinbrenner.
In the meantime, of course, all anyone can do is wait.
sch40s end cap Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.