Chai latte in hand, I settled in yesterday morning to watch a seminar on private equity, run virtually by investment data company Preqin. I still love taking notes with different colored pens and highlighters.
There was one statistic that I highlighted, underlined, and circled: PE and VC fundraising will hit 2021 highs again in 2028. I found that surprising given that we’re still working through the aftermath of the most recent bubble (one source I spoke to recently compared 2021 in private capital to a wild, memorable party followed by a brutal hangover). UHMWPE Liner Sheet
My first instinct was that 2028 feels really soon for another rager, since folks I talk to tend to agree that the market still isn’t sorted from the sky-high expectations of 2021. The exit environment is tough, money is expensive, and geopolitical uncertainty abounds. If you want to—or have to—fundraise right now, it’s not for the faint of heart. As Jessica Lin, general partner at Work Bench told me, “In 2021, when the market was at its peak, many VCs were saying ‘we don’t need ownership, we don’t need board seats’ to get into overly priced, competitive deals. And now so many companies are still trying to work their way out of 2021’s consequences, saddled with high valuations,” she said.
I also ran through the prediction with OMERS Ventures managing partner Michael Yang, who pointed out that “PE is a lot bigger than VC, right? So, if you’re going to combine them, whatever happens with PE is going to dominate the answer,” he said. But, Yang added, PE and VC do share some of the same challenges, “namely, the need to drive returns for their LPs, who have been saying ‘where’s my money?’”
So is it crazy of Preqin to say that we could be back in a 2021-style fundraising bubble in four years?
Yang, for his part, is torn. Despite all the forces encouraging moderation, “the flip side is if we start seeing decreasing interest rates, all the big institutional investors will want to get back into equities, public or private,” he said. “When it comes to private, they’ll start shoving money into everyone’s hands, emerging and existing managers. So maybe we get there a lot sooner than we think, because everyone starts saying ‘the economy is back, interest rates are low, and we’re back to growing!’”
Yang and Lin did agree on one count: As they both joked, maybe seven years between booms isn’t such a big gap. After all, VCs, they both reminded me, tend to have short-term memories.
As always, I’d love to hear your opinions….
Some fintech news…Brex is laying off a startling 20% of its staff, my colleague Kylie Robison reported Tuesday. The fintech giant is valued north of $12 billion and last conducted layoffs in October 2022. It’s been a tough stretch for fintech—in 2023, the sector saw funding drop 42%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence released earlier this year.
Allie Garfinkle Twitter: @agarfinks Email: alexandra.garfinkle@fortune.com Submit a deal for the Term Sheet newsletter here.
Joe Abrams curated the deals section of today’s newsletter.
- Silverfort, a Tel Aviv, Israel and Boston, Mass.-based provider of identity protection software, raised $116 million in Series D funding. Brighton Park Capital led the round and was joined by existing investors Acrew Capital, Greenfield Partners, Citi Ventures, and others.
- Instagrid, a Ludwigsburg, Germany-based provider of portable battery systems, raised $95 million in Series C funding. Teachers’ Venture Growth led the round and was joined by Morgan Stanley Investment Management and existing investors Energy Impact Partners, SET Ventures, and others.
- Monta, a Copenhagen, Denmark-based provider of software solutions for EV chargers, raised €80 million ($87 million) in Series B funding. Energize Capital, GreenPoint Partners, and Denmark’s state-backed Export and Investment Fund led the round and was joined by Headline, byFounders, AENU, Creandum, and Quantum Light.
- Sano Genetics, a Cambridge, U.K.-based platform designed to streamline the recruitment, testing, and patient engagement processes of precision medicine research, raised $11.4 million in funding. Plural led the round and was joined by existing investors MMC Ventures, Episode 1, and Seedcamp.
- Norm Ai, a New York City-based provider of AI bots for compliance teams, raised $11.1 million in seed funding. Coatue led the round and was joined by Haystack Ventures, M13 Ventures, and others.
- PhageLab, a Santiago, Chile-based biotech company developing treatments designed to control bacterial outbreaks in breeding processes in the livestock industry, raised $11 million in funding from Nazca, Collaborative Fund, Water Lemon Ventures, and Kevin Efrusy.
- Daytrip, a London, U.K.-based provider of door-to-door car transfers, raised $10 million in Series B funding. Taiwania Capital led the round and was joined by Euroventures, J&T Ventures, and N1.
- Masa Network, a San Francisco-based company building a decentralized data economy, raised $5.4 million in seed funding. Anagram led the round and was joined by Avalanche Blizzard Fund, Digital Currency Group, GoldenTree, OP Crypto, Unshackled Ventures, and others.
- UpSmith, a Dallas, Texas-based employee recruiting and productivity monitoring platform, raised $5 million in funding. Hannah Grey VC led the round and was joined by a16z, GSV Ventures, Asymmetric Capital Partners, Cubit Capital, and others.
- unSkript, a San Jose, Calif.-based health monitor for tech infrastructure, raised $3.8 million in pre-seed funding from Westwave Capital, First Rays Venture Partners, Scribble Ventures, Zero Prime Ventures, and angel investors.
- Concrete4Change, a Nottingham, U.K.-based company that captures CO2 and mineralizes it in concrete, raised £2.5 million ($3.2 million) in seed funding. Zacua Ventures and Counteract led the round and was joined by the family office of Goldbeck.
- Bagel Network, a Toronto, Canada-based machine learning platform, raised $3.1 million in pre-seed funding. CoinFund led the round and was joined by Protocol Labs, Borderless Capital, Maven 11 Capital, Graph Paper Capital, and Breed VC.
- Metris, a London, U.K.-based platform designed to help property owners evaluate the solar potential of their properties, raised £2 million ($2.5 million) in pre-seed funding from Octopus Ventures and Aenu VC.
- BlackRock Private Markets acquired a minority stake in Recurrent Energy, an Austin, Texas-based developer and owner of solar and energy storage assets and subsidiary of Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ), for $500 million.
- Koch Equity Development acquired a minority stake in CPM Holdings, a Blaine, Minn.-based supplier of process equipment for animal feed, oilseed processing, extrusion, and thermal processing markets, for $400 million.
- PSG Equity acquired a majority stake in Visit Group, a Gothenburg, Sweden-based provider of software for the tourism industry, for more than €100 million ($108.5 million).
- Kraken acquired Kwest, a Berlin, Germany-based provider of installation management services. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Monomoy Capital Partners acquired EnviroTech Services, a Greeley, Colo.-based distributor of road surface products and provider of road maintenance services. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Thermal Technology Distribution Solutions, backed by Gryphon Investors, acquired Proheat, a La Grange, Ky.-based distributor of heaters, sensors, controls, and tech support to manufacturers. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Cognizant (Nasdaq: CTSH) acquired Thirdera, a Broomfield, Colo.-based solutions provider for the ServiceNow platform, from Sunstone Partners. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- Fort Point Capital acquired Ice House America, a Moultrie, Ga.-based owner and operator of automated ice and water vending units, from Ulysses Management.
- H.I.G. Capital acquired CHA Consulting, an Albany, N.Y.-based engineering, design, consulting, and program management firm, from First Reserve. Financial terms were not disclosed.
- CG Oncology, an Irvine, Calif.-based biotech company developing therapies for bladder cancer, now plans to raise up to $306 million in an offering of 17 million shares priced between $16 to $18. ORI Capital, Decheng GP, Longitude Venture Partners, Kissei Pharmaceutical, Foresite Capital, TCG, and Ally Bridge Group back the company.
- ArcTern Ventures, a Toronto, Canada-based venture capital firm, raised $335 million for its third fund focused on climate tech companies.
- Cohen Circle, a New York City-based investment firm, hired Chris Ferris as head of investor relations and capital formation. Formerly, he was with Franklin Templeton.
- Felicis, a Menlo Park, Calif.-based venture capital firm, hired Astasia Myers as general partner. Formerly, she was with Quiet Capital.
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