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US Industrial Products & Construction leader
John is a vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and the leader of the US Industrial Products & Construction practice. John has more than 25 years of consulting experience focusing on global companies with highly-engineered products in the A&D, Industrial Products and Automotive industries.
John advises senior executives on driving impactful and sustained performance improvement, through both top-line growth and margin improvement initiatives. He has led large-scale transformation efforts to help businesses with strategic cost transformation and operations/supply chain initiatives.
John has an undergraduate degree from Lafayette College in Business & Economics and Government & Law and an MBA from Duke University.
Kate Hardin, Executive Director of Deloitte’s Research Center for Energy and Industrials, has worked in the energy industry for 25 years. She currently leads Deloitte’s research on the impact of the energy transition on the energy and industrial manufacturing sectors. Before that, Kate led IHSMarkit’s integrated coverage of transportation decarbonization and the implications for automotive and energy companies.
Kate has served as an expert in residence at Yale’s Center for Business and Environment, and she is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Kate has an MBA from the Yale School of Management and a MA in Russian studies from Yale University.
Research leader, Industrial products manufacturing
John Morehouse is the research lead for Industrial Products Manufacturing in the Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials. He has more than 25 years of experience in manufacturing-related roles in industry, academia, and government.
In 2023, the US manufacturing industry capitalized on the momentum generated by three significant pieces of legislation that were signed into law in 2021 and 2022—the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Together, these laws prioritize rebuilding infrastructure, advancing clean energy initiatives, and building out the domestic semiconductor industry, while also aiming to foster job growth, workforce development, and equity. By introducing an infusion of funds and tax incentives into US manufacturing across various sectors—including semiconductors, clean energy components, electric vehicles, batteries, and the constituent parts and raw materials of these products—the IIJA, CHIPS, and IRA have already spurred record private sector investment in the manufacturing industry.1
Read more from the Deloitte Center for Energy & Industrials’ 2024 outlook collection
For example, the investments in semiconductor and clean technology manufacturing are nearly double the commitments made for these sectors throughout 2021, and nearly 20 times the amount allocated in 2019.2 Since passage of the IRA, close to 200 new clean technology manufacturing facilities have been announced—representing US$88B in investment—which are expected to create over 75,000 new jobs.3 There has been a significant increase in construction spending in the manufacturing industry after the passage of the IIJA, CHIPS Act, and IRA (figure 1). As of July 2023, annual construction spending in manufacturing stands at US$201 billion, representing a 70% year-over-year increase and setting the stage for further industry growth in 2024.4
The manufacturing industry continues to face headwinds, however. In 2024, manufacturers are expected to face economic uncertainty, the ongoing shortage of skilled labor, lingering and targeted supply chain disruptions, and new challenges spurred by the need for product innovation to meet company-set net-zero emissions goals. Deloitte’s analysis of Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data reveals that the manufacturing sector was in contraction for most of 2023.5 So, what strategies should manufacturers consider in order to tackle these ongoing challenges, help scale up production, improve competitiveness, and capture the full potential of the record influx of capital into the industry? To help companies begin to answer this question, the 2024 manufacturing industry outlook explores the following trends:
Technology is poised to play a significant role in supporting manufacturers in taking on the challenges they may face in 2024. With a persistent search for efficiency and focus on building resilience across the organization, many manufacturers look to continue to pursue their digital transformation objectives—even as some may be considering pausing investments because of the challenging business environment. Companies seem to be embracing a smart factory approach, exploring the industrial metaverse, and investigating the possibilities of generative AI, one of the latest additions to the arsenal, as tools they can use to add value to their operations.
A recent Deloitte study indicated that a striking 86% of surveyed manufacturing executives believe that smart factory solutions will be the primary drivers of competitiveness in the next five years.6 According to another recent survey, manufacturers anticipate that the industrial metaverse could lead to a 12% gain in labor productivity, which might help address the ongoing labor shortages. Generative AI is expected to hold immense potential in areas such as product design, aftermarket services, and supply chain management. It could lead to reduced costs across manufacturing organizations and could serve as another tool for navigating a challenging labor market. Considering the immense scope of this technology, we have presented generative AI use cases for each trend.
Labor market tightness has continued into 2023 (figure 2), and the same trend is expected for 2024. In a recent survey conducted by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM), almost three-quarters of surveyed manufacturing executives feel that attracting and retaining a quality workforce is their primary business challenge.7 Manufacturers have been proactive about adjusting their workforce policies to improve employee attraction and retention. Some recent changes include:
While manufacturers have made progress in adapting their workforce policies to improve talent attraction and retention, additional strategies can be considered in 2024 to continue to build on this momentum. Potential approaches to hiring amid a tight labor market include:
Generative AI can be used to customize training materials based on specific job roles, site conditions, or regulatory requirements. This technology can analyze large volumes of data, such as incident reports, occupational health and safety (OHS) guidelines, or compliance standards and generate tailored content, including videos, interactive modules, or quizzes. Combined with VR, generative AI can be used to develop virtual training environments that replicate operational conditions. With realistic scenarios that simulate OHS incidents, trainees can navigate hazardous situations, identify risks, and improve their OHS awareness and response capabilities in a safe setting.
Source: Deloitte, The generative AI dossier, September 12, 2023.
As economic uncertainty, tight labor markets, and rising costs continue to challenge manufacturers, the importance of leveraging digital technologies—both within and beyond the factory walls—grows. The journey of the manufacturing industry toward industry 4.0 and the concept of a “smart factory” seems to be in full swing. According to a recent study, 83% of manufacturers believe that smart factory solutions will transform the way products are made in five years.19
The smart factory integrates advanced technologies such as AI, 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), data analytics, and cloud computing in the production environment to help provide real-time insights, end-to-end visibility, and scalable solutions. Economic upheaval, a tight labor market, rising costs, and continued supply chain stresses underline the importance of agility, resilience, and efficiency in manufacturing operations. The potential benefits of smart factories are vast—ranging from gains in asset efficiency, labor productivity, and product quality to substantial cost reduction, along with the advancement of the cause of safety and sustainability (figure 3).20
Manufacturers don’t seem to be stopping at the smart factory transition. A recent Deloitte study reveals that, through their smart factory efforts, over 70% of surveyed manufacturers have woven technologies such as data analytics and cloud computing into their processes, and nearly half are already harnessing the power of IoT sensors, devices, and systems.21 These technologies are also foundational to the industrial metaverse. In addition, the majority of surveyed manufacturers have made significant investments in digital twins, 3D modeling, and 3D scanning, which can serve as key building blocks of the immersive 3D environments that make up the industrial metaverse.22 With connectivity to data-rich 3D immersive environments from virtually any location with a broadband internet connection, the industrial metaverse provides manufacturers with the opportunity to enhance their business both within and beyond the production environment of the smart factory.
Building a model-based enterprise and leveraging the industrial metaverse can enable manufacturers to connect and collaborate with internal and external stakeholders across the globe. This can help companies unlock efficiencies by synchronizing communication between functions, for instance, communication between engineering and production. It can also create the potential to accelerate new product design, gain access to difficult-to-find talent at remote locations, enhance supply chain collaboration and visibility, and provide new customer experiences. According to the 2023 Deloitte and MLC industrial metaverse study,23 92% of surveyed manufacturers are already experimenting with or implementing at least one metaverse-related use case, and on average, they are currently running more than six use cases. Executives surveyed anticipate an increase of 12% or more in several key performance indicators, including sales, quality, throughput, and labor productivity because of industrial metaverse initiatives.
While digital transformation offers many benefits for the manufacturing sector, it also carries the potential to add to cybersecurity risks. In a recent study, more than half of surveyed manufacturing companies said they were targeted by ransomware, with nearly seven out of 10 of these attacks resulting in malicious data encryption.24 Manufacturing was also the most targeted sector for ransomware attacks in 2022 for the second consecutive year.25 To mitigate the risk of cyberthreats, as manufacturers implement digital transformation projects, they should consider giving cybersecurity as much priority as these projects themselves. It is often common to focus primarily on the potential benefits and ROI when implementing new digital technologies; however, directing equal focus to how systems and data will be protected as the technologies are implemented can help build and enhance cybersecurity from day one. Manufacturers should also consider the cybersecurity preparedness of their suppliers against cyberthreats, including the risk of a supply chain disruption caused by a cyberattack as well as the potential exposure of proprietary and sensitive data. According to Deloitte’s article Meeting the challenge of supply chain disruption, many companies are employing a range of strategies and digital tools to sense, monitor, take action, and engage in scenario planning to enhance the effectiveness of their suppliers in managing third-party risks.26
Generative design can enable product development teams to generate and visualize multiple alternatives of a new 3D product design based on input constraints such as weight, performance requirements, strength, material, cost, etc. The benefits can include optimized products, cost savings, and accelerated product innovation.
Source: Deloitte, The generative AI dossier, September 12, 2023.
Navigating evolving and challenging supply chains has been a key focus for manufacturers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nonetheless, there are indications of recent stabilization. According to Deloitte’s analysis of PMI data over the past year, manufacturers have generally observed a gradual improvement in delivery times. The average delivery times for production materials peaked at an all-time high of 100 days in July 2022 but have since steadily improved, reaching 87 days in August 2023.27 However, the journey is still challenging. While there has been a notable improvement in the average lead time for production materials, it has not returned to prepandemic levels (figure 4).
One factor contributing to continued supply chain delays is ongoing shortages in components such as electrical, electronic, and semiconductor parts. These shortages, which have persisted for more than 30 months now, can complicate production and delivery for a variety of manufacturing subsectors.28 The enactment of the CHIPS Act has triggered investments in semiconductor manufacturing in the United States, with the first plant expected to begin production in 2024, followed by additional plants coming online in 2025.29 While this is expected to increase the domestic supply of chips, it may be a few years before these production facilities can make a significant dent in the ongoing semiconductor shortages, often affecting the manufacturing industry. In addition, the record growth in clean technology manufacturing spurred by the IIJA and the IRA is likely to cause increased demand for not only semiconductors but also electronic components in general.
As the industry faces ongoing supply chain challenges, manufacturers have pivoted toward digital supply chain solutions to help achieve better visibility across the value chain and bolster resilience. According to a recent Deloitte survey, 76% of manufacturers are adopting digital tools to gain enhanced transparency into their supply chain.30 Some manufacturers have also started experimenting with and implementing industrial metaverse use cases to fortify supply chain resilience. In fact, 21% of respondents in the 2023 Deloitte and MLC industrial metaverse study are already integrating metaverse technologies to elevate their supply chain ecosystem.31
As one example, an aerospace and defense manufacturer has created a digital twin of its supply chain for its key products, a virtual model that can be used to simulate a variety of potential real-world scenarios. Using the digital twin, the manufacturer can produce a heat map highlighting the components that exert the most influence on its value chain. This can help the company identify alternative suppliers for key components and, thus, reduce dependencies, increasing supply chain robustness and agility.32
Novel technologies—for example, distributed ledgers such as blockchains, or smart contracts, which automate contract execution within blockchains—are gaining interest from some manufacturers. While distributed ledgers can help make transactions among multiple parties tamperproof and verifiable, smart contracts can help automatically assess the transaction status and perform actions such as automatic shipment verification and payments.33 About one-quarter of manufacturers surveyed plan to implement these technologies within the next year, hinting at a potential new wave of adoption and innovation.34
As the manufacturing industry continues to navigate the postpandemic recovery, persistent shortages, economic uncertainty, and record investment, technology will likely remain a pivotal force in driving efficiency, resilience, and innovation in the supply chain.
Generative AI could help identify and simulate potential disruptions or risks in the supply chain from both publicly available data and supplier data. By assessing port congestions, shipment routes, and tier supplier mapping, generative AI could predict potential risks and their corresponding impact on operations, and recommend actions such as rerouting shipments, adjusting maintenance plans, or triggering stock transfer. It could allow supply chain managers to proactively implement mitigation strategies, develop contingency plans, and help improve overall resilience.
Source: Deloitte, The generative AI dossier, September 12, 2023.
In recent years, manufacturers have accelerated their use of advanced technologies to enhance their products, such as IoT sensors, onboard computers, machine learning capabilities, embedded radio frequency identification tracking, augmented reality (AR) interfaces, energy-efficient components, and countless other innovations, pushing the boundaries of what’s possible. These improvements have underscored not only the importance of comprehensive aftermarket support but also the opportunity it offers. A strong aftermarket presence can serve as a significant source of revenue, signal a commitment to long-term product reliability, and increase customer satisfaction.35 And manufacturers seem to have noticed. As per Deloitte’s analysis of publicly available reports from industrial companies, there is a surge in interest in aftermarket services—2022 ended with 71% of industrials talking positively about aftermarket services.36
The lockdowns following the pandemic highlighted some of the challenges, costs, and inefficiencies of dispatching field service technicians to address customers’ critical repair and maintenance needs to maintain product uptime and optimal operation. Digital technologies that enable remote assistance can become important in ensuring business continuity.37 In the 2023 Deloitte and MLC industrial metaverse study, nearly one-third of respondents are already implementing or experimenting with virtual aftermarket services.38 Technologies such as AR and virtual reality can create new and enhanced offerings, such as AR-based remote troubleshooting assistance and virtual operation manuals. For example, an automation and robotics company has developed an AR-based app for smartphones that can simplify installation of its robots for clients. AR capabilities allow the installer to overlay a visualization of the installation steps in the real-world environment.39
Enhanced aftermarket services can provide several additional benefits for manufacturers, which include:
A generative-AI-enabled virtual field assistant can serve as a reference tool and provide quick access to a vast amount of technical information. When encountering issues or challenges in the field, for example, with an in-service product, engineers or technicians can describe the problem to a virtual field assistant, and it will return appropriate questions to identify the cause or provide step-by-step guidance for resolution.
Source: Deloitte, The generative AI dossier, September 12, 2023.
An influx of federal funds and incentives, combined with a general drive toward a net-zero emissions future, have created an increase in investments in electrification and decarbonization of the product portfolios of industrial products manufacturers. The IIJA’s investments in electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure is complemented by the IRA, which aims to accelerate the adoption of EVs and boost battery manufacturing. Overall, the IRA provides more than US$270 billion in climate- and clean energy-related incentives, including more than US$40 billion in tax credits to expand manufacturing of EVs, batteries, and numerous other types of clean energy technologies.43 Over 125 new manufacturing facilities for clean vehicle and battery technology production have been announced in the United States since the IRA was signed into law in August 2022.44
As companies move forward on their journey to electrifying and decarbonizing their product portfolios, new challenges emerge. These challenges include the need to address technical readiness, high initial costs of transitioning production processes, as well as new and complex supply chains for batteries and their crucial rare earth metals. There is also risk associated with customer willingness to make the shift—at least in the short term—from more affordable alternatives. Another challenge is the intricate management of the battery life cycle, from cradle to grave. While these challenges may seem daunting, some manufacturers have already taken the lead in the transition.
Companies have implemented a variety of strategies, ranging from making organizational changes to forming important partnerships, to overcoming some of the challenges associated with product electrification and decarbonization. Some of their approaches include:
As companies build new facilities to support manufacturing of electrified and decarbonized products, generative AI can automate certain aspects of the site design process, provide designers with a multitude of design options, and help reduce time and cost of manufacturing.
Source: Deloitte, The generative AI dossier, September 12, 2023.
Significant investment and growth in the US manufacturing industry is expected to continue in 2024. Continuing to embrace new technology and digital transformation will likely be important for manufacturers as they look for ways to capture the opportunity at hand and tackle the challenges they face. In the coming year, manufacturers may deploy strategies that could help navigate economic uncertainty, skilled labor shortages, lingering supply chain challenges, and the hurdles of transitioning to zero-emission products:
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US Industrial Products & Construction leader
John is a vice chair, Deloitte LLP, and the leader of the US Industrial Products & Construction practice. John has more than 25 years of consulting experience focusing on global companies with highly-engineered products in the A&D, Industrial Products and Automotive industries.
John advises senior executives on driving impactful and sustained performance improvement, through both top-line growth and margin improvement initiatives. He has led large-scale transformation efforts to help businesses with strategic cost transformation and operations/supply chain initiatives.
John has an undergraduate degree from Lafayette College in Business & Economics and Government & Law and an MBA from Duke University.
Kate Hardin, Executive Director of Deloitte’s Research Center for Energy and Industrials, has worked in the energy industry for 25 years. She currently leads Deloitte’s research on the impact of the energy transition on the energy and industrial manufacturing sectors. Before that, Kate led IHSMarkit’s integrated coverage of transportation decarbonization and the implications for automotive and energy companies.
Kate has served as an expert in residence at Yale’s Center for Business and Environment, and she is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Kate has an MBA from the Yale School of Management and a MA in Russian studies from Yale University.
Research leader, Industrial products manufacturing
John Morehouse is the research lead for Industrial Products Manufacturing in the Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials. He has more than 25 years of experience in manufacturing-related roles in industry, academia, and government.
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Amanda Chu and Oliver Roeder, “US manufacturing commitments double after Biden subsidies launched,” Financial Times, April 16, 2023.
Environmental Entrepreneurs, “Clean economy works: Tracking new clean energy projects across United States,” accessed October 16, 2023.
Deloitte analysis of US Census Bureau data.
Deloitte analysis of the Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports.
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NAM, “NAMs’ outlook survey first quarter 2023,” March 27, 2023.
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Jeff Wald, “How automation could save your business US$4 million annually,” Forbes, August 3, 2017.
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Deloitte’s Research Center for Energy & Industrials group, “2019 Deloitte and MAPI smart factory study.”
Deloitte, “Smart factory for smart manufacturing,” accessed October 16, 2023; Paul Wellener, Steve Shepley, Ben Dollar, Stephen Laaper, Heather Ashton, and David Beckoff, Manufacturing goes digital: Smart factories have the potential to spark labor productivity, Deloitte Insights, September 16, 2019.
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Deloitte analysis of PMI reports.
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Wellener, Hardin, Gold, Laaper, and Parrott, Meeting the challenge of supply chain disruption.
Wellener, Coykendall, Hardin, Morehouse, and Brousell, Exploring the industrial metaverse.
Analysis of company filings using AlphaSense.
Vishal Gaur and Abhinav Gaiha, “Building a transparent supply chain: Blockchain can enhance trust, efficiency, and speed,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 2020.
Wellener, Coykendall, Hardin, Morehouse, and Brousell, Exploring the industrial metaverse.
Paul Wellener, Kerry Millar, Oliver Bendig, and Aijaz Hussain, Aftermarket services: Transforming manufacturing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Deloitte Insights, May 14, 2020.
Deloitte analysis of publicly available company documents.
Wellener, Millar, Bendig, and Hussain, Aftermarket services.
Wellener, Coykendall, Hardin, Morehouse, and Brousell, Exploring the industrial metaverse.
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SAP, “XaaS and subscription business models: How business model innovation is driving growth strategies,” accessed October 17, 2023.
BlueGreen Alliance, “Clean manufacturing investments in the Inflation Reduction Act,” accessed October 17, 2023.
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Deloitte analysis of publicly available company documents.
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Deloitte analysis of publicly available company documents.
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Deloitte analysis of publicly available company documents.
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The authors would like to thank Visharad Bhatia for his role as a key contributor to this report, including research, analysis, and writing.
Additionally, the authors extend their gratitude to the following members from the Deloitte 2024 manufacturing industry outlook advisory board:
Heather Ashton Manolian, Ben Dollar, Luke Monck, Brian Wolfe, Lindsey Berckman, and Michael Schlotterbeck.
The authors would also like to acknowledge the following people for their respective contributions:
· Julia Tavlas, Patricia Buckley, and Lisa Iliff for their subject matter inputs;
· Business leaders Ann Scheuerman, Steven C Shepley, and Doug Alkema for their valuable insights;
· Clayton Wilkerson for orchestrating resources related to the report;
· Tara Meyer, Kimberly Prauda, and Neelu Rajput who drove the marketing strategy and related assets to bring the story to life;
· Alyssa Weir for her leadership in public relations; and
· Rithu Thomas and Pubali Dey from the Deloitte Insights team who supported the report’s publication.
Cover image by: Rahul B
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