By David Kershaw 2024-06-10T15:00:00+01:00
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index continued climbing over the course of last month, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD12,639 the start of June 2024. Robust demand and high rates in the container shipping sector are the main drivers of the increase. China Forwarder
At the end of May 2024, the rate stood at USD12,483. The analyst attributed the rise in multipurpose charter rates to developments in the container shipping sector, where close to covid rate levels and robust demand for capacity is prevalent.
“This is reflected in both container carriers’ interest in chartering multipurpose vessels and shippers’ requests for quotes for shipments of containers from breakbulk carriers,” said Toepfer.” This trend is valid for the main trades, which are already well utilised with non-containerised cargoes, while the impact on regions with weaker demand remains limited.”
The analyst added that there has been slight increase in the price of multipurpose newbuildings. For instance, a 12,500 dwt newbuild with a 500 tonne lift capacity is now estimated to cost USD31 million; last month the figure was USD30.75 million. Second-hand prices have held steady.
May 2024 index – published May 10, 2024
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has improved slightly over the last month, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD12,483 the start of May 2024.
The figure represents a month-on-month increase of 1.83 percent over the April figure of USD12,259.
“The additional tonnage miles created by ships circumnavigating the Red Sea risk area still have a positive impact on fleet utilisation,” commented Toepfer. “The unexpected recovery of the rates for containers weakens the competition from container operators chasing breakbulk cargo.”
Regarding sale and purchase, Toepfer said that there is ongoing low activity in the second-hand market, while the newbuilding prices remain at firm level. Looking ahead, the analyst and shipbroker anticipates rates to increase by 3.09 percent in six months’ time and by 5.58 percent in a years’ time.
April 2024 index – published April 10, 2024
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has shown a marginal improvement, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing USD12,259 at the start of April 2024.
The increase of 1.93 percent month-on-month over March 2024 followed a nominal improvement during February. “Rising demand, as well as the ongoing threat to shipping caused by the Houthi attacks have a quite positive impact on the fleet utilisation. This is underlined by carriers fixing ships on time charter at rates above index levels,” said the shipbroker and sector analyst.
In the sale and purchase market, Toepfer said that it sees a slight decline in second-hand multipurpose vessel prices, which is driven by limited activity in the market. Newbuilding prices remain at firm levels.
March 2024 index – published March 08, 2024
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index registered an increase at the start of March 2024, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD12,027.
This represents a month-on-month increase of 2.94 percent, with the February 2024 figure standing at USD11,684.
“Positive demand indicators and booking activity combined with higher utilisation of the fleet, both caused by traditional market movements and the additional ton-miles arising from circumnavigating the Red Sea risk area, cause the TMI to move slightly upwards again,” Toepfer explained.
The analyst added that it has seen some charterers willing to pay rates above the TMI level to strategically secure cargo space to cater for their clients’ future demand, and to strengthen their services.
Toepfer forecasts that rates will increase by 4.06 percent in six months’ time and by 6.97 percent in a years’ time.
February 2024 index – published February 07, 2024
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index registered a slight increase at the start of February 2024, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD11,684.
The rise represents a month-on-month increase of 0.21 percent, with the January 24 value standing at USD11,660.
“After a quite quiet December, the pace of cargo bookings increased but the carriers still report high volatility of the activity, which seems to change on a week-by-week basis,” Toepfer explained.
It added that most carriers avoid sailing to areas that are endangered by the Houthi attacks and the additional tonnage miles created by ships sailing via the Cape of Good Hope increase the fleet utilisation. On the operational side, this requires adjustments on mid-term and long-term scheduling. “These effects help to stabilise the charter market and thus the TMI is moving (very) slightly upwards again,” Toepfer added.
The analyst forecasts that rates will increase by 3.09 percent in six months’ time and by 8.92 percent in a years’ time.
January 2024 index – published January 15, 2024
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index continued its decline at the start of January 2024, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD11,660.
The drop represents a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percent, with the rate in December 2023 standing at USD11,850.
“The trajectory of the TMI remains unchanged. Due to the many market actors having enjoyed the holidays and maybe some additional days on vacation, the activity was low, and so is the amount of reference fixtures. We monitor that some mid- and long-term charters have been fixed above the index level, but it is yet unclear if or when these higher levels turn out to be a trend,” explained Toepfer.
The analyst forecasts that’s rates will increase by 1.48 percent in six months’ time and 5.9 percent in 12 months’ time.
December 2023 index – published December 12, 2023
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has continued its decline at the start of December 2023, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD11,850. The rate in November 2023 stood at USD12,208.
The drop represents a month-on-month decline of 2.93 percent. “The TMI follows its trend of the past months with a slight decline but an increasingly positive outlook,” Toepfer explained. The analyst added that, as the year draws to a close, “it can be stated that 2023 was a good year but it remained below the expectations.”
Toepfer anticipates that rates will increase by 2.86 percent in six months’ time and 8.17 percent in a years’ time.
November 2023 index – published November 15, 2023
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has continued its decline at the start of November 2023, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD12,208. The rate in October 2023 stood at USD12,572.
The drop represents a 2.02 percent decline from last month. According to Toepfer, the delay of various projects and the non-appearance of the expected surge in demand for cargo space from the wind power sector as well as the low activity in the minor bulk markets have blurred the optimism.
The TMI-P indicates that the outlook for the market is more positive than it was in previous months, with an anticipated 3.12 percent increase in charter rates in six months and a 7.23 percent increase in a years’ time.
“The increase of newbuilding ordering activity and the time charter rates agreed for these newly ordered ships indicate quite some positive sentiment in the long term,” Toepfer added.
October 2023 index – published October 5, 2023
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has continued its slow decline at the start of October 2023, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD12,572.
The October index is only a slight decrease from the previous month, when it stood at USD12,958. Nevertheless, it is a considerable drop when compared to the October 2022 rate, which hit USD20,289.
September 2023 index – published September 7, 2023
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has continued its slow decline at the start of September 2023, with the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel standing at USD12,958.
August 2023 index – published August 7, 2023
The rate in August stood at USD13,545, while the rate in September 2022 was USD21,608.
Toepfer’s August 2023 TMI index.
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has continued to edge downwards and at the start of August 2023, the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel stood at USD13,545.
The rate level was USD14,106 at the start of July 2023. Toepfer Transport said that the European summer season has taken its toll, with fewer people at their desks: “The summer doldrums are back and in a market which was steadily weakening over the past months this cause out index further to decline.”
Nevertheless, the analyst added that the TMI multipurpose rate index is still well above its five-year average which currently sits at USD11,921. “The sentiment remains optimistic with an expectation of the index rate to rise by 5.17 percent until August 2024,” it added.
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index has tracked downwards. At the start of July, the average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel stood at USD14,106.
The figure fell month on month by 2.19 percent. This time last year, the daily rate stood at a lofty USD23,009.
The analyst said that “the impact of the poor spot market on the TMI index rate is increasing, and the weakness of the handysize bulk carrier and container markets slightly start to dampen the still positive outlook on the multipurpose demand side.”
Newbuild multipurpose vessel prices are still at multi-year highs – a 12,500 dwt 500-tonne lift capacity vessel is roughly USD30.5 million. “We note that a small number of German owners have placed orders for F-500-type ships at two Chinese shipyards. Only one of the contracts is fully effective, while the others still have a few more steps to go,” said Toepfer.
Toepfer Transport’s monthly multipurpose rate index held steady at the start of June. The average daily time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel rose marginally to USD14,421.
In May 2023, the daily rate was USD14,360. “Having in mind the current poor spot market, the index rate, which reflects time charter rates for contracts with six-12 months duration, includes some leap of faith for the next months,” said the analyst.
It added that trades from Europe remain weak, and the upcoming summer holiday season will hinder potential improvements. “On the demand side there is still limited activity from the minor bulk trades but increasing activity from the industrial projects and infrastructure markets,” said Toepfer.
In terms of the orderbook, just 28 ships (2.92 percent of the MPP fleet by deadweight) are under construction or on orders. Many of these ships are already contracted on long-term projects and will be unavailable for spot charters. “Keeping up with the demands for a modern fleet with low CO2 emissions and capability to shoulder the transportation of wind turbines and other project cargo to drive energy transition remains a matter of concern.”
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 1.61 percent month-on-month to USD14,360 at the start of May 2023, according to Toepfer Transport.
“As expected, the market continues its sideways movement,” said Toepfer.
The general sentiment, it added, is that demand will move up significantly toward the end of this year. No larger movements, however, can be expected in the short term.
This is reflected in Toepfer’s forward-looking evaluations, anticipating a rise of 0.82 percent in time charter rates in six months’ time, while its 12-month forecast predicts an increase of 1.33 percent.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 2.09 percent month-on-month to USD14,595 at the start of April 2023, according to Toepfer Transport.
“The optimism which prevailed in the multipurpose market over the past months is lessened and many stakeholders realised that there are more obstacles for the anticipated demand from the renewables sector to phase in than expected,” said Toepfer.
It added that this is underlined by spot positions reappearing on carriers’ sailing lists after many months of extraordinarily good utilisation of the tonnage.
On the asset side, newbuilding prices have continued to move upwards due to rising costs as well as increasing interest rates for the shipyards. Activity on the second-hand market remains slow, with minimal sale and purchase activity, according to the analyst.
Toepfer’s forward looking evaluations anticipates a rise of 0.6 percent in time charter rates in six months’ time, while its 12-month forecast predicts a further drop of 0.42 percent.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 1.52 percent month-on-month to USD14,907 at the start of March 2023, according to Toepfer Transport.
Toepfer said: “It seems that the market correction which took place over the past months has reached its bottom line. The good news is that even if there is still pressure from the weak minor bulk markets, the rate levels are still healthy for the shipowners and carriers.”
It added that forecasts for the next 12 months indicate only slow growth. In six months’ time, the index suggests rates could be up by 3.54 percent, while the 12-month outlook predicts a rise of 3.36 percent.
Toepfer said that the index will oscillate around this month’s level in the mid-term.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 4.8 percent month-on-month to USD15,137 at the start of February 2023, according to Toepfer Transport.
Toepfer said the rates have suffered from a significant decline of demand from the minor bulk commodities sector. “A profitable mix of cargo on a multipurpose vessel usually includes some minor bulks which, as a base cargo, bring a good contribution to cover the voyage costs and increase the vessel stability for heavy lift operations while leaving some good space for better-paying project cargoes. A lack of minor bulk parcels therefore has an impact on the fleet utilisation.”
The forward-looking predictions vary, added Toepfer. In six months’ time, the index briefing suggests rates could be up 1.66 percent. The 12-month outlook, however, predicts a decline of 1.51 percent.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 10.81 percent month-on-month to USD15,900 at the start of January 2023, according to Toepfer Transport.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 10.81 percent month-on-month to USD15,900 at the start of January 2023, according to Toepfer Transport.
“A recent drop in demand from the traditional breakbulk/neobulk market puts pressure on the time charter rates. While most market stakeholders expect the demand for multipurpose cargo space to increase rapidly later this year, it is yet unclear when exactly all the expected oil and gas and renewables projects finally will be shipped,” said Toepfer.
“These uncertainties are flanked by the high number of Covid-19 infections in China, which may have some impact on the steel markets, the production of various goods and on the reliability of port operations.”
Toepfer added that the situation was clearly reflected in the assessments its panellists made for the six-month and 12-month forecasts, where some expect the rates will rise in the coming months and others expect the rates to fall. “Only time can tell us who is right,” said Toepfer.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 5.75 percent month-on-month to USD17,827 at the start of December 2022.
The decline continues a vein of form seen over the course of the past three months. The analyst expects a steady 6 percent month-on-month decline in charter rates going forwards.
The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 6.77 percent month-on-month to USD18,915.
The shipbroker’s index has fallen roughly 6 percent per month for the past three months, and dipped below USD20,000 per day for the first time in 10 months.
“We believe that this is a healthy trend which could lead to a sustainable rate level that is needed to make the much-needed investments into the multipurpose fleet viable,” said Toepfer. It added that the second-hand market remains bullish; ships are still being fixed at high levels showing confidence in the future rate developments.
Toepfer Transport’s October time charter index shows that the average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 6.1 percent month-on-month to USD20,289.
The shipbroker and market analyst said that the multipurpose operators “are facing a certain dip in demand from the traditional breakbulk sector, which meets a significant withdrawal of interest from container carriers, especially for large multipurpose units”.
It added: “On the other hand, many demanding industrial projects are expected to be moved forward in the next months, which are likely to cause a high utilisation of the more sophisticated ships in the fleet.”
In Toepfer Transport’s September 2022 time charter index, the average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell 5.86 percent month on month to USD21,608.
Slipping for the third month in succession, the Germany-headquartered shipbroker and market analyst said the decline was in part due to the European summer slump, and the current political/economic uncertainties. “The almost overheated market faces the inevitable market correction while the demand indicators show that the average charter rates will remain at high levels. As a result, the duration of new charter fixtures gets shorter,” said Toepfer.
Shipbroker and industry analyst Toepfer Transport has issued its August 2022 time charter index. The average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel fell slightly to USD22,954.
Month on month the rate is down 0.78 percent, and the Hamburg-based broker said that “market participants are still fixing for high levels though pressure begins to rise. The first indicator of the market slowing down are the time charter length and we see a definitive drop there. Most operators are hesitant to commit to these still high rates for a longer period.”
Toepfer attributed this to greater macroeconomic uncertainty, something that is expected grow with China now concluding military training at the border of Taiwan.
It added that the “sideways trend” in its index suggests that market participants are still in an overall good mood: “The large investments from countries around the world in renewable energy as well as oil and gas should provide the multipurpose sector with large cargo volumes for the years to come.”
Toepfer Transport reports that the average daily multipurpose time charter rate for a 12,500 dwt/F-type heavy lift vessel hit USD23,099 in July – up 1.47 percent month on month.
It said that the multipurpose shipping sector is currently driven by a “wait-and-see attitude” even though multipurpose rates stand at an all-time high. The global economy is on the brink of recession. Sentiment across the OECD has been falling for 11 months and is at its lowest ebb since 2009.
“Due to the long lead times for large projects, negative economic trends usually reach the multipurpose market with a certain delay and some indicators give hope that the ongoing surge in demand, especially from the renewables sector, may mitigate some of the upcoming macroeconomic pressure,” said Toepfer.
“Facing the uncertainty of when, how long and how hard the recession will hit the market, both the multipurpose second-hand and the newbuilding markets show very low activity. Some owners are still actively promoting their newbuilding ideas but most still have some way to go to turn their plans into effective orders,” it added.
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